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Climate change is rapidly increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The Netherlands, where 26% of the territory lies below sea level, is particularly vulnerable to flooding and other climate-related hazards. Effective a priori evacuation plans are known to reduce loss of life, yet uncertainty surrounding both the spatial development and temporal progression of disasters often renders theoretically optimal evacuation decisions unviable in practice. Designing evacuation strategies that remain efficient, feasible and resilient when critical infrastructure is threatened by large-scale disruptions therefore remains a major challenge in Operations Research.

The RESCUE project develops new multi-stage optimization models for pre-disaster evacuation decisions on critical road and shelter infrastructure subject to failures. Combining robust optimization, stochastic programming and copula theory, the project assesses the resilienc...